xFat duck

Gambling-math, market-crash and founder stories told as long posts

Long story posts on the math and people behind gambling and markets: card counters, roulette physicists, Kelly bet sizing, shuffling math and advantage players, plus market episodes such as LTCM, the Flash Crash, Madoff, GameStop and the South Sea bubble. Recent posts add founder rags-to-riches stories and a few sponsored AI tool posts. Written for English-speaking readers who like finance and probability told as stories.

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writes for English-speaking retail investors and finance readers who like market history and probability told as stories · Worldwide, in English

what they post about

share of their last 40 posts, 2026-10-24

Gambling math and advantage players40%

Market history and crashes32%

Founder rags-to-riches stories18%

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prices are per publication

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A long piece on X — the format people find later, not only in the timeline.

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what usually flies

their posts by reach · 30,674 views on record

Carl Icahn was completely wiped out - car, savings, girlfriend, all of it - in a single day in 1962. He tells the story9 sep 26 · x video19kviews357likessee it →

The person who built the pricing models behind Morgan Stanley's TARP deal with the US Treasury, its emergency capital in2 sep 26 · x video3.9kviews62likessee it →

A finance textbook used to state, in cold print, that stock prices reflect the true underlying value of every asset - an7 sep 26 · x video2.4kviews59likessee it →

Three numbers can describe almost every way the U.S. Treasury yield curve moves on a given day - and the eigenvector mat4 sep 26 · x video1.9kviews53likessee it →

A 30-year-old mathematician wrote down the math for standard Brownian motion five years before Einstein did, used it to 5 sep 26 · x video1.7kviews41likessee it →

The same algorithm that helped steer Apollo astronauts safely around the moon and back shows up, almost as an afterthoug6 sep 26 · x video1.7kviews47likessee it →

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